The lack of upsets continued last week as seven of the top eight teams in the nation (according to my power ratings) made it to the Elite Eight with North Carolina, Florida, UCLA, Kansas, Georgetown, Ohio State and Memphis all advancing. The only team in my Top-8 that didn’t advance was Texas A&M, which lost by one point to Memphis.
The Final Four is now set with a pair of #1 seeds battling against a pair of #2 seeds. Defending national champion Florida remains the team to beat as the Gators have a 36% chance to win their last two games, followed by Georgetown at 24%, Ohio State at 22% and UCLA at 18. %. These percentages break down into the following “true odds” for those of you looking at Final Four futures prices.
Florida 2.8 to 1
Georgetown 4.1 to 1
Ohio State 4.5 to 1
UCLA 5.6 to 1
The two semifinal games feature an interesting pair of matchups as Florida and UCLA meet in a rematch of last year’s national finals. The Bruins are 9-1 SU in all tournament games of the last two tournaments and their only loss came to the Gators 73-57 last year.
The other semi-final features a matchup of two of the best big men in the nation with the 7’1″ Greg Oden and 7’2″ Roy Hibbert. It will be interesting to see if Ohio State is comfortable with the style of half court that Georgetown prefers to play.
There are four possible matchups for the national finals on Monday night. Below are the “true odds” for each pairing.
Florida/Georgetown 32% (3.1 to 1)
Florida/Ohio State 30% (3.4 to 1)
UCLA/Georgetown 20% (5.0 to 1)
UCLA/Ohio State 18% (5.4 to 1)
UCLA vs. The Georgetown matchup would be a nightmare for CBS with an extremely ugly half-court battle that could struggle to break 100 total points.
STEVE MERRIL is a professional sports handicapper and a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Get your Premium plays here.