Rotcanti.com

Software full of Performance

With the NBA Summer League restarting, teams have an opportunity to showcase rookies, teach them the system, and allow them to integrate with the team. Using a bit of data analysis, I was able to crunch some numbers and make some predictions about newbie success and lack thereof. To measure the impact of each rookie, I used his college stats for points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals (all per game). Then I subtracted last year’s starter for the team they’re with to gauge the immediate impact. Financial value was a hard thing to do since some players haven’t signed contracts, so I multiplied the impact by the square root of their total pick number because the NBA uses tiered salaries per pick. Here are some highlights:

Highest Impact Rookies (Not Value-Weighted)

DeAndre Ayton – Soles

Chandler Hutchison – Bulls

Marvin Bagley III – Kings

These three players were the only rookies with worthless weighted potential hits greater than 10. I predict the Suns made the right call by taking DeAndre Ayton with the first overall pick. The Suns desperately needed a center, and Ayton’s college stats far exceed Tyson Chandler’s stats from last year. Watch out for Chandler Hutchison too because I predict he’s going to surprise a lot of people. I compared Denzel Valentine’s stats to his and they weren’t even close. Look for Hutchison’s name further down the list. Finally, Marvin Bagley III appears poised for NBA success. A solid second overall pick for the Kings fills a serious need for the team, and I predict it will have an immediate positive impact.

Highest Impact Rookies (Weighted Value)

Chandler Hutchison – Bulls

Kevin Hervey – Thunder

Alize Johnson – Pacers

These three rookies had value-weighted hits greater than 50, and no other rookies reached that number. Hutchison had the highest, and as I said earlier, it’s sure to surprise a lot of people. Look for great things this coming year. Hervey and Johnson were helped by low draft positions, with Hervery at 57 and Johnson at 50. I predict both will get some decent minutes off the bench and have more of an impact than their draft position can warrant.

Rookies with worst impact (weighted value)

Kostas Antetokounmpo – Mavericks

De’Anthony Melton – Rockets

Thomas Welsh – Nuggets

Gary Trent Jr. – Trail Blazers

These four rookies are likely to have almost no impact on the team that drafted them. These four were the highest regardless of whether the value was taken into consideration or not. Antetokounmpo was the last overall pick, and frankly, I’m surprised he was drafted. It does have a very high perk though, but it will take some time to develop. The other three will most likely end up in the dev league as they all have major flaws in some area. Some bigger names to watch for as busts are Jaren Jackson of the Grizzlies, Mo Bamba of the Magic and Michael Porter Jr. of the Nuggets.

Teams with the most impactful rookies (weighted value)

Thunder

pacemaker

Bulls

I chose to only show value-weighted impact for teams because it really shows how well the team wrote on the need. The Thunder had three low picks, all with positive impact values, giving them a chance for all three to make a difference. However, one problem that is difficult to explain mathematically is that two teams, Hamidou Diallo and Devon Hall, play in the same position, meaning some impact will be cancelled. The Pacers had two picks, Aaron Holiday (23rd) and Alize Johnson (50th) with solid positive hits. Each seems to have the ability to play beyond their draft value. Lastly, the Bulls had Wendell Carter, Jr. (7th) and the aforementioned Chandler Hutchison (22nd). My bold prediction for this post is that one of these two will win Rookie of the Year. The Bulls had a good draft and seem poised for a trade with a core group of young players.

Teams with the least impact rookies (weighted value)

nuggets

Mavericks

rockets

The Nuggets drafted three rookies, all with negative impacts. This shows that the team didn’t draft out of necessity, and at least for their top pick, Michael Porter, Jr., they reached. Personally, I was never a big fan of drafting him because of his injury issues. Furthermore, they hampered his performance to a great extent. The big reason the Mavericks are here is because of Kostas Antetokounmpo. His other two rookies had a small positive impact, but he made up for them. It will simply be a project that either becomes a superstar or is quickly forgotten. Lastly, the Rockets had two low picks in the draft, which simplifies that they most likely won’t contribute. Give it a few years and things may be different, but for now, the Rockets’ rookies probably won’t see much time.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *